Dentsu Forecasts 2024 Global Ad Spend To Grow By 4.6% And Defines A New Era Of Brand Investment Metrics

• Global advertising spend expected to grow by 4.6% in 2024 with media inflation driving the increase to reach US$752.8 billion.
• Digital continues to rise with 6.5% growth in 2024 to reach $442.6 billion and a 58.8% of overall spend, with retail media leading the acceleration of investment.
• Connected TV ad spend growth doubles year on year, up 30.8% in 2024, as major video platforms launch or refine their ad offering, reshaping the channel.
• The dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts report introduces new ‘Cost per Capita’ and Gross Domestic Product analysis for holistic ad spend comparison for brands.

The latest dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts, covering 58 markets across the globe, shows advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022). However, media price inflation continues to have a significant influence on growth, with global advertising spend at constant prices projecting a 2024 increase by only 2.5%, when compared to 2023 spending.*

Digital is also expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach $442.6 billion in 2024, representing 58.8% of global advertising spend. The slowdown to single-digit growth first observed in 2023 (6.3%) is forecast to continue in 2024 (6.5%) and to become the norm over the next years: 6.3% three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2026. Yet, digital is expected to continue to be the main driver of global ad spend growth and capture the most incremental ad dollar investments, with an additional $27.1 billion spend next year.

The report shows that in 2024, significant media opportunities arise for advertisers from major cyclical sporting and political events such as UEFA EURO2024 and the US presidential election, driving increased investments both at a market and international level.

The free bi-annual dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts report, examines real-time financial data from around the world, identifying major shifts in ad spend by media channel, by sector and by geography.  Additionally, this report also explores two new comparisons for brand leaders, enabling them to consider ad spend in relation to wider macro-economic factors such as market demographics and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Will Swayne, Global Practice President - Media, dentsu said:

“Despite the current worldwide geo-political instabilities and economic outlook, in 2024 we can see how significant major political and sporting events are for creating positive growth in ad spend. But overall spend is just one of the metrics we need to consider, so for the first time, we have conducted a deep dive analysis into market GDP and population as new alternative ad spend benchmarks for our clients.”

Dentsu analysis shows in 2024, advertising spend is forecast to represent, on average, 0.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries tracked*, which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years (0.70%). With some markets contributing considerably more, for example; advertisers in Japan (1.26%), the United Kingdom (1.23%) and the United States (1.13%) spending much more than those in other markets relative to their GDP.

Additionally, the report demonstrates that in 2024, advertisers will spend, on average, $139 per capita across the world. It is about 75% more than what they spent 20 years ago ($80). Beyond showing that advertisers are spending more to attract audiences, the ad spend per capita indicator also shows the growing ad pressure faced by audiences.

Swayne continues: “Audiences are receiving an increasing volume of ads, so finding new ways to drive ad effectiveness has never been more important. We are seeing an increased focus on planning and buying for attention, over pure reach, as more brands seek to maximize their return on investment and capitalize on the attention economy tools available to them.”

From a channel perspective, the 2024 dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts outlook indicates that in the digital space, retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2% three-year CAGR, followed by paid social investments (12.3% three-year CAGR). Programmatic channels, which already account for more than 70% of digital ad spend, are also expected to continue growing by double-digits (10.2% three-year CAGR).

Following two consecutive years of declining ad spend, TV is predicted to return to growth (2.9%) and capture 23.0% of ad spend in 2024. Connected TV is forecast to experience a rapid 30.8% growth, almost twice as fast as 2023 growth (15.9%), as major video platforms launch or refine their ad offering.

Other media are expected to account for a 18.2% share of advertising spend in 2024. All will grow (cinema by 6.4%, out-of-home by 4.4%, audio by 1.1%), barring print which will contract by -3.3%.

Advertising spend is expected to grow across all regions. The Americas, the largest region in terms of ad spend, is forecast to overtake Asia-Pacific as the most dynamic with 5.8% growth in 2024, which is significantly greater than the 2.5% growth it experienced in 2023. Advertising spend in the region is expected to accelerate the fastest until at least 2025 (4.8% growth). Asia-Pacific is predicted to grow by 4.0% in 2024 (+0.5 percentage point vs. 2023), and EMEA by 2.7% growth (+0.8 percentage point vs. 2023).

Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year (4.2%), growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter (4.9%) before peaking during the third (5.5%), supported by major sports events. Two sectors in particular are forecast to grow at a much faster rate than the global average: travel and transport (7.5%) and pharmaceutical (7.4%).

The full dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts can be downloaded for free here: www.dentsu.com/2024-ad-spend

PRESS CONTACTS
     John Mayne / +44 (0)7929 856 435
     john.mayne@dentsu.com / media.pressoffice@dentsu.com

NOTES TO EDITORS
* Top 12 spending markets tracked: USA, China, Japan, UK, Germany, France, Australia, Brazil, India, Canada, Italy, Spain.

About the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts:
Advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data collated from dentsu agencies until the second half of October 2023 and based on local market expertise. Dentsu uses a bottom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 58 markets covering the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and Asia-Pacific by medium: digital, television, print, out-of-home, audio, and cinema. Digital specifically references pure play digital platforms and does not include ad spending on the digital extensions of traditional media (e.g., digital print) which are accounted within media channel totals (e.g., digital print is accounted within print). The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. Global and regional figures are centrally converted into US dollars at the October 2023 average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced biannually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following years all restated at constant exchange rates

About dentsu:
Dentsu is the network designed for what’s next, helping clients predict and plan for disruptive future opportunities in the sustainable economy. Taking a people-centered approach to business transformation, dentsu combines Japanese innovation with a diverse, global perspective to drive client growth and to shape society.
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